Quick take on RG draw
May 20, 2011 2 Comments
The wait is over. By now, we have already made plans, traced paths for our faves and wondered the outcome of both earlier and further rounds. Because that’s what we do, as tennis fans.
We also blog about it. A lot. So, there is a draw analysis galore out there – good analysis and stuff. But I just could not let go the opportunity to add my two cents. There we go
Rafa’s draw is easy (until the QFs, I hope) – I haven’t seen a consensus about it, but really, I don’t see how John Isner (barely wins matches these days) could be a tricky opener for Nadal. After Nadal gets past him, a virtual walkover vs. either Giraldo or Andujar, then Cuevas or Davydenko.
Davydenko even leads the H2H against him – one of the few players to do so – but after winning his 21st career title, in Munich, Koyla hasn’t won a single match. The five-time champ would just steamroll over him. I even dare to think Cuevas could be a better match-up (for tennis).
In the fourth round, PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER, SAM QUERREY, IVAN LJUBICIC, SOMDEV DEVVARMAN, TURSUNOV, MALISSE, MONACO OR VERDASCO will challenge Rafael Nadal.
He must lead them by a combined 82-2. Or something like. But another Nadal-Soderling clash in Roland Garros (for the third straight year) is tasty, though.
Really? – The top-3 Americans in the French Open were drawn in Nadal’s quarter. Beside John Isner, who opens (and probably also closes) his participation against him, Querrey gets Kohls in the first round. IF he survives, plays the winner of Ljubicic or Devvarman. In a possible third round, Sam would play probably the clay rats Verdasco or Monaco. Enough?
Fish, the 10th seed, opens against Ricardo Mello (Mello must have already played around 6 Americans this year). Doable. Then Gimeno-Traver or Haase. Not easy, but yeah, he could survive. But a possible third round meeting with Chardy, Dimitrov or Simon?
Verdasco vs. Monaco might be a good match-up for girls to watch – But I’m not expecting a good match nor looking forward to watch it.
It doesn’t get much better – For Andy Murray. Drawn in the middle of three qualifier, Andy Moo opens against local Eric Prodon (and Murray is having some record against random local qualifiers, I must remind you). Don’t think he will go down. Bolelli or Dancevic are next for him. I’m think here 6-0 in sets arriving in the third round. Milos Raonic might be a problem.
Might. Then I just want Dolgopolov to have enough good days to book an Aussie Open QF rematch with Murray in the 4th round. Because it would be just awesome, mainly on clay.
I don’t care what you’re gonna say, I really believe it – Florian Mayer in the semifinals of a Grand Slam? Only Kunitsyn, Falla/Potito standing between him and the third round. Almagro could be his toughest foe. If he manages to defeat him, Melzer or Chela would be a big deal, but perfectly beatable. In a possible quarterfinal meeting with Murray (or someone else)…well. No-one would bet a single penny on Jurgen last year, right?
I’m sorry, Melzer, but I believe – Your days as a top-10 are about to end. Beck, Roger-Vasselin or Rosol, o.k. But unless he brings some momentum to Roland Garros (after some sad losses in the last two Masters prior to it), Juan Ignacio Chela could pull an upset.
Golden chance – For Ferrer to match, maybe even set a new, best at the French Open. Nieminen first, Jules (ranks second amongst my picks to win the tournament, after FloMo) second, no problems against Nishi or Stakh in the third, God knows if Monfils will survive until the fourth round.
Let’s a picture quarterfinal meeting between Federer and Ferrer. Fed, as usual, leads the H2H by an abnormal advantage, and will always be the favorite in a five-setter. But seriously, I would not be surprised in case the Spaniard finally fulfills the expectations and reaches the final four for the first time.
In the paper… – Roger Federer’s path is hard. Only in the paper. I don’t think Feliciano can keep up with him, unless Roger is in a bad Federer day. Let’s not even waste space with the second round. Janko Tipsarevic is the seed drawn to play him in the third round. In the fourth?
Tsonga – schooled back in Rome – and Wawrinka – walkover. No scares, and Rodgie can already count with the total defense of his 180 points.
HE IS BACK – News of the year: Tommy Haas hasn’t officially retired yet. Back to the pro-tour, as a German again, he plays Marsel Ilhan in the first round. It will be his first match since Delray Beach, last year. Last time he played on clay, Roland Garros/09. I don’t care, just give him a show court already!
Oh yeah, and he is back too – Lleyton Hewitt, sidelined from the circuit since having a foot surgery, back in Indian Wells, opens against Albert Montañes. Not the best first rounder for the former no.1, but oh well.
Good news, bad news – For Gaskay. Good: He has nothing to defend (remember that uber chokage vs. Murray last year?) and making his way through the R16 is not an absurd. Bad: He is likely to play the winner of DelPo and Nole. Certainly gets on his way for further dreams.
So unfair – I really want Nole to take over the #1 in Roland Garros. I also really want Del Potro to have a deep run. Unfortunately for me, they’re set to play each other in the third round. Unfortunately (again), in my opinion, JMDP’s lack of rhythm will spoil all the fun, though.
LONG – this post is
FUN – I want you to have
ALL – Is this for now.